Workforce Planning Strategies for Retail: What Large Businesses Need to Know

According to the British Retail Consortium, the UK retail sector employed 2.8 million people in 2024, representing 10% of all UK jobs and contributing £440 billion to the national economy. This scale highlights why effective workforce planning is so critical for large retailers.

Retail workforce planning is the strategic process of aligning human resources with business demands to deliver optimal customer service whilst controlling operational costs. According to the CIPD's definition, workforce planning involves analysing current workforce capabilities and planning future workforce requirements to achieve organisational objectives.

For large retail businesses, this process becomes considerably more complex than it is for smaller operations. Where a single-store retailer might rely on spreadsheets and local knowledge, multi-site organisations require sophisticated approaches that can simultaneously manage varying demand patterns, diverse skill requirements, and complex compliance obligations across dozens or hundreds of locations.

What unique challenges do large retailers face?

Large retail operations face four primary workforce planning challenges that distinguish them from smaller businesses:

1. Unpredictable footfall – Becomes more complex with multiple locations, with distinct customer behaviours
2. Seasonal peaks – Recruiting hundreds of temporary staff, with corresponding training and admin
3. Compliance requirements – Vary by region and require consistency (working time regulations, rest break requirements, holiday entitlements)
4. Cost control pressures – Labour accounts for a significant proportion of revenue so small efficiency improvements can yield significant savings

To understand the broader HR landscape that influences workforce planning, our blog on the ‘5 HR challenges of the retail industry’ outlines key issues such as recruitment, compliance, and employee wellbeing that retail leaders must navigate.

Poor scheduling practices can contribute to retail's notoriously high turnover rates, creating costly recruitment and training cycles that drain resources and impact service quality.

For more details on recruiting for seasonal peaks and strategies to do so effectively which can help you tackle these unique challenges, read our ‘Guide to hiring seasonal workers in the UK’.

Accurate forecasting is the foundation for successful retail workforce planning. Without reliable predictions, scheduling systems will fail to deliver optimum results. Embracing a data-driven approach can account for multiple variables and provide a more comprehensive picture.

What data should be used to predict staffing needs?

Effective workforce forecasting starts with historical sales and transaction data which can reveal seasonal patterns and day-of-week fluctuations that inform baseline staffing requirements. However, transaction volumes, average basket sizes, and conversion rates can also provide context beyond raw sales figures. This can help determine how many staff are needed and what skills are required when.

Footfall data adds essential depth to this picture. Modern counting systems reveal periods where high footfall, but lower sales indicate a need for more floor assistance, whilst high-transaction periods require additional till operators.

Integrating POS and CRM systems enables real-time workforce adjustments. When connected to workforce management software, these systems can alert managers to unexpected demand surges, triggering immediate staffing responses.

External data sources provide broader context. ONS retail trends offer benchmarks that help distinguish individual performance from sector-wide phenomena. Weather forecasts, local events, and even social media sentiment can all influence customer behaviour and staffing needs.

Large retailers increasingly use predictive analytics combining these diverse sources through machine learning, identifying complex patterns like weather-promotion interactions that human planners might miss.

How do seasonal and promotional events impact workforce planning?

Seasonal variations present some of retail's biggest workforce challenges. Christmas trading can account for up to 30% of annual revenue, requiring planning that begins months in advance. Predicting November's steady build-up through intense final shopping days to Boxing Day sales can help inform staffing levels.

Black Friday has evolved from a single day to sustained week or month-long events requiring different staff capabilities. Black Friday customers arrive with specific targets, needing staff well-versed in promotions and capable of managing potentially stressful situations.

Retailers operating across the UK and Ireland must account for different school holidays, local festivals, and regional preferences.

Can economic and consumer trends improve forecast accuracy?

Economic indicators provide valuable workforce planning context. Consumer confidence indices, inflation rates, and employment statistics all influence shopping behaviour. During economic uncertainty, customers might browse more but purchase less, requiring different staff mixes than during confident spending periods.

Demographic shifts and changing consumer preferences also matter. Omnichannel retail growth requires staff supporting click-and-collect services, handling online returns, and providing consistent cross-channel service.

Interest rate changes particularly impact big-ticket retailers, whilst inflation affects essential goods sellers differently than luxury retailers.

Technology has made significant improvements to retail workforce management, particularly for large businesses with multiple sites. A Legion Technologies report (2025 State of the UK Hourly Workforce) shows that 65% of UK retail/hospitality managers believe there is a need to automate labour operations, but only 19% of them currently use AI-driven scheduling tools.

Platforms like Access PeopleXD Evo are designed to automate scheduling, improve compliance, and provide actionable insights for large retailers, helping them stay agile in a fast-changing environment.

Which tools help automate scheduling and shift management?

Modern workforce management platforms balance customer service levels, labour budgets, employee preferences, skills requirements and legal compliance. The benefits extend across the organisation. Store managers gain time to focus on team development and customer service rather than manual scheduling. HR departments receive real-time visibility into labour costs and compliance across all locations. Employees enjoy greater schedule predictability and streamlined processes for time-off requests and shift changes.

For example, Cineworld implemented workforce management software to streamline scheduling across its cinema locations. The solution helped reduce admin time, improve compliance with working time regulations, and enhance employee satisfaction through better shift visibility.

"To me it's about having the right people, the right time, in the right place... I think people are now waking up to the power and the efficiency and the accuracy and the fact that it can help retention and attraction if you've actually got a workforce management platform. And then one that's even more intelligent when you start bringing in AI or predictive analytics and feeding business information in — that can really be powerful and actually a really strong commercial tool."

Zoe Wilson, Director of ReThink HR, Episode 5: Making workforce management, work of Do the Best Work of Your Life

How can predictive analytics optimise staffing?

Predictive analytics applies machine learning algorithms to historical data, identifying patterns and relationships impossible for human planners to detect. These systems consider dozens of variables simultaneously, generating highly accurate demand forecasts that continuously improve through self-learning capabilities.

By accurately matching staff levels to actual demand, these systems eliminate costly overstaffing during quiet periods and understaffing during busy times.

What are the benefits of real-time scheduling and shift swapping?

Real-time scheduling enables dynamic responses to changing conditions. When integrated with live sales and footfall data, systems can alert managers to developing situations requiring immediate action, automatically contacting available staff to offer additional shifts.

Employee self-service portals mean that staff can post shifts, view available opportunities matching their skills, and complete exchanges with minimal manager intervention whilst maintaining compliance and avoiding skill gaps.

This flexibility significantly improves employee satisfaction and work-life balance, which can lead to reduced absenteeism and lower turnover rates. For additional insights into how large retailers can tackle high attrition rates, our blog on 'Reducing turnover in large retail businesses’ explores proven strategies that complement effective workforce planning. For large retailers, even small turnover reductions can save hundreds of thousands of pounds in recruitment and training costs. Mobile accessibility adds another dimension, enabling employees to manage schedules from smartphones whilst allowing managers to approve requests from anywhere.

Retail turnover rates remain among the highest of any industry, with recent research from the Retail People Index showing that over 50 percent of retail staff are considering leaving their roles due to job insecurity.

What planning strategies support career development?

Internal mobility pathways need clear mapping and communication, with workforce planning systems tracking employee skills, certifications, and aspirations to identify development opportunities automatically. Large retailers can leverage their scale to offer cross-store secondments, national project participation, and exposure to different retail formats that smaller competitors cannot match. Training initiatives that align with business forecasts and strategic objectives can have a significant impact. To explore how strategic HR initiatives can further boost motivation and morale across retail teams, read our blog on ‘Improving employee engagement in retail’, which outlines practical ways to build a more engaged and resilient workforce.

How does fair scheduling impact employee satisfaction?

Schedule predictability and flexibility consistently rank among employees' top priorities, often above pay rates. Workforce planning systems can ensure overtime distribution remains fair whilst analysing productivity patterns to identify optimal shift lengths that maintain performance and protect employee wellbeing.

Advanced platforms can maintain pools of employees willing to accept last-minute shifts, enabling rapid demand response whilst respecting predictability preferences. Employee preference systems that capture shift preferences and availability create schedules naturally aligning with individual needs whilst meeting business requirements.

How can workforce planning support DEI goals?

Data-driven workforce planning reveals hidden biases in hiring, scheduling, and promotion decisions across stores and regions. By analysing patterns, retailers can identify where certain groups might be underrepresented or where development opportunities aren't distributed equitably, enabling targeted interventions.

Inclusive scheduling practices consider diverse needs including religious observances and caring responsibilities, with large retailers using their scale to provide coverage enabling flexibility.

Legal compliance in workforce planning presents complex challenges for large UK retailers, with regulations covering working hours, data protection, and employment rights. Non-compliance can result in substantial fines and reputational damage, particularly for organisations operating across multiple jurisdictions with varying requirements.

Working Time Regulations 1998 establish core requirements: maximum 48-hour weekly averages (unless opt-out agreements exist), minimum 20-minute breaks for shifts exceeding six hours, 11 consecutive hours rest between shifts, and weekly rest periods. Young workers require additional protections including maximum eight-hour shifts. Holiday entitlements of 5.6 weeks annually must be tracked and managed across entire workforces, with pro-rata calculations for part-time staff requiring robust systems.

GDPR obligations around workforce data include secure storage, limited access, and clear collection purposes. National Minimum Wage regulations require careful attention across different age bands, with annual rate updates and considerations for uniform or training deductions. Modern slavery legislation demands verification of right-to-work documentation and fair agency worker treatment, whilst health and safety obligations require adequate staffing levels to maintain safe operations and prevent understaffing-related risks.

Measuring workforce planning effectiveness requires balancing operational efficiency with employee satisfaction and customer service quality. Labour cost as a percentage of sales remains fundamental, with best-in-class retailers typically maintaining costs between 8-12% of sales, though this varies by retail format and market positioning.

Key metrics include:

• Staff turnover rates tracked by store and department to identify problem areas
• Shift fill rates indicating successful matching of plans to deployment
• Customer satisfaction scores that provide the ultimate test of staffing effectiveness

Digital dashboards with AI integration can automatically flag anomalies, identify trends, and suggest optimisation opportunities across multiple locations. Reporting and Analytics with AI integration in PeopleXD Evo enables real-time monitoring and correlation of satisfaction metrics with staffing data to identify optimal service levels for different trading conditions.

"Assuming you have your data in one spot, the big challenge for HR in the next two to three years is all around the productivity agenda. So how does an organisation help drive productivity of the workforce, and how can you use workforce management tools to be able to then measure and optimise productivity? Every organisation, large and small, is seeking a productive workforce — whether that is through full-time employees or your flexible workforce. HR is really being forced into the agenda here around how we help the business define and then measure productivity of the workforce. I would say that's the number one challenge for HR over the next few years."

Roger Clements, Chief Growth Officer at Matrix in Episode 5: Making workforce management, work of Do the Best Work of Your Life, emphasises the point using analytics to demonstrate productivity.

Benchmarking against industry standards through bodies like the British Retail Consortium provides crucial context, though benchmarks should be used thoughtfully as premium retailers differ from value-focused operations.

Retail workforce planning now represents a strategic differentiator for large businesses. Organisations that excel at workforce planning create competitive advantage through superior service, lower costs, and stronger employee engagement by treating their people as comprehensive strategic assets.

Implementation drives success. Start by assessing current workforce planning maturity and identifying areas where improvement would deliver greatest impact. Focusing on the most pressing challenges first, like reducing overtime costs, improving retention, or enhancing peak period customer service can have a significant impact. Investment in advanced workforce planning capabilities typically delivers substantial returns through reduced labour costs, improved compliance, and enhanced service quality. For large retailers operating on thin margins, excellent workforce planning becomes essential for survival and competitive success.

Ready to transform your retail workforce planning? Explore our comprehensive workforce management software solutions designed specifically for large retail businesses. Our AI-enabled HR software provides the sophisticated forecasting, scheduling, and analytics capabilities needed to optimise your workforce whilst improving employee satisfaction and customer service.

Download our free workforce planning template to begin mapping your workforce and discover how leading retailers are using advanced workforce management technology to drive competitive advantage in challenging markets.

Curious how leading retailers are transforming workforce planning? Discover how Access PeopleXD Evo can help.