Which area is most competitive for primary school admissions?

Last February, analysis by Schools Week predicted that some areas in the UK could be experiencing growing surplus places in their primary schools as the early-2000s population boom reaches secondary school age. In Walsall, for example, a shortfall of secondary school places has already been predicted.

A small primary school in a rural North Yorkshire village is a rare case with zero pupils on its roll since September 2022, but what is happening in  other areas across the UK?

Our ‘school squeeze’ campaign suggests that the broader picture across the UK is much more varied.

To understand which areas are most squeezed (where there are the most children per number of schools in their local authority) and where parents have the best access to their first choice primary schools, we looked at the number of children set to attend primary school in the 2023/24 academic year, and then compared this to the number of primary schools per local authority.

While the most squeezed locations are dominated by Southern areas, towns and cities from the North, Midlands, Yorkshire and coastal areas are less competitive places to secure admission at a first-choice school – and where teachers might be left with the most surplus places.

England’s smallest historic county, Rutland, offers the best access to primary school places, with just 309 children entering each of the region’s 24 schools next year. This equates to 13 per school, on average. This is followed by North Yorkshire, with 14 children to 384 schools, and Cumbria, also with 14 children to each of its 310 schools.

Kensington and Chelsea, unlike some areas of West London, features in the top 20 places with the best access, with an average of 20 children in the area per 61 schools.

Local authority	Average number of children set to begin primary school in 2023/24	Number of primary schools in local authority	Number of children entering primary school in 23/24 per school
Rutland	309	24	12.9
North Yorkshire	5463.5	384	14.2
Cumbria	4418	310	14.3
Northumberland	2768	181	15.3
Dorset	2952.5	179	16.5
Shropshire	2814.5	164	17.2
Devon	6986	400	17.5
County Durham	4889	279	17.5
Derbyshire	7589.5	430	17.7
Somerset	5350.5	302	17.7
Bath and North East Somerset	1731	94	18.4
Herefordshire	1677.5	91	18.4
Cornwall	5004.5	265	18.9
Norfolk	8391.5	428	19.6
Lincolnshire	6984.5	347	20.1
Wiltshire	5113.5	254	20.1
Kensington and Chelsea	1228.5	61	20.1
East Riding of Yorkshire	2888.5	143	20.2
Staffordshire	8604.5	425	20.2
Calderdale	2232.5	110	20.3

While a ‘squeezed’ school area can be bad news for parents looking to secure their first place, there are advantages for the schools themselves, as well as challenges.

For local authority schools, a healthy admissions register can help to secure vital funding. Doing so will be essential for all schools amid last year’s landmark rise in teacher salaries, and the first winter since the energy crisis hit.

Head teachers with busy classrooms should pay particular attention to the wellbeing of their staff, too. Ofsted recently warned of the risk that the education sector’s workforce crisis poses. Reducing unnecessary stress on existing staff members will be key, while also upholding great standards of education. By introducing digital revision tools, schools can manage pupils’ learning, while supporting their staff – and with school HR software teacher wellbeing can be effectively monitored.

Schools with pupil numbers that often vary from term to term would benefit from curriculum planning software. This is true whether it’s a school in Slough wondering if they need to hire new staff to teach their volume of new starters, or a school business manager in Rutland wanting to know how their new budget can meet the needs of pupils.

Private schools weren’t included in our data collection campaign, but the challenges faced during the admissions process shouldn’t be ignored. When Latymer Upper School invested in a new parent engagement software, its admissions registrar found that she saved around 100 hours of time in the admissions process, while also improving parent communication by updating progress in real time.

If you’re interested in finding out more about our systems designed exclusively for schools, get in touch with our expert team to discuss your needs.

 

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Methodology for data collection:

 

• We based the number of children set to enter primary school in 2023/24 using the most recent Census, which is based on information as of 21 March 2021.
• In order to establish the number of children due to be turning five between 1 September 2023 and 31 August 2024 (eligible for entry into Reception), we took the average number based on count of 1-year olds and 2-year olds at the time of the Census.
• The number of primary schools (and outstanding primary schools) were taken using the Government's School Performance Checker
• For local authorities where county council’s were responsible for the management and running of primary schools, the equivalent Census and school location stats were combined together. For example, for West Sussex this included local council data for Adur, Arun, Chichester, Crawley, Horsham, Mid Sussex and Worthing.